Despite relatively significant volatility, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock has recorded only a modest overall move in September, and Finbold’s predictive machine learning algorithm estimated that such performance will persist by October 15, 2026.
Specifically, after consulting a variety of technical analysis (TA) indicators, including oscillators, moving averages (MA), and the relative strength index (RSI), the Finbold <a href="https://myappsplus.com/range-artificial-intelligence-ai-policy/" title="RANGE Artificial Intelligence (AI) policy”>artificial intelligence (AI) agent determined that NVDA shares will rally 3.15% to $236.98 by October 15.
ChatGPT-5.6 Terra proved to be the most bullish among the five models included in the predictive system, and it set its price target at $238.60: 3.85% above the press time price of $229.55 on the morning of September 29.
China’s most recognizable AI, DeepSeek, and Alphabet’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) model, Google Gemini, were tied at the opposite end of the spectrum with a 2.94% forecasted rise to $236.50.
Finally, OpenAI’s other two variants, GPT-5.7 Luna and GPT-5.6 Sol, came in close to the average, with the former estimating a 2.94% upside to $236.50 and the latter 3.07% to $236.80.
Nvidia stock price performance
Elsewhere, Nvidia stock’s latest moves – a 2% rise from the Friday, September 25, closing bell – are arguably surprising given the company’s most recent moves.
Indeed, on Monday, the firm came out with the statement that its board had approved another $150 billion for its share buyback program, taking the total to be repurchased through fiscal year 2028 (FY2028) above $230 billion.
Such programs – especially when they break records as Nvidia’s is – tend to have a substantial impact on the equity due to shifting the balance between supply and demand heavily in favor of existing stockholders.
Still, the relatively modest 2% rise is consistent with NVDA’s performance through 2026. After soaring more than 1,000% between 2022 and the end of 2025, the semiconductor giant slowed down and is up 21.62% year-to-date (YTD).
However, this comparatively modest performance is, by press time on Tuesday, September 29, no cause for particular disappointment for Nvidia’s investors, as they are set to receive the firm’s recently increased dividend already on October 1.
In the long run, however, there may be more cause for anxiety.
As Nvidia’s own disclaimer states, there are no guarantees that the approved NVDA stock buyback program will be completed, and the company’s recent history of making major bullish announcements whenever the AI ‘boom’ narrative turns unstable makes follow-through even more unstable.
Ultimately, the long-term health of the blue-chip technology giant will be decided by the accuracy of recent reporting indicating that most chips the company sold remain unplugged, relative to the veracity of bullish claims made by the captains of the AI industry.
