According to the latest analyst forecasts, higher smartphone prices won’t be changing anytime soon amid a record-setting drop in shipments.
IDC reports that its forecast for the 2026 global smartphone market has taken a turn for the worst. Where a drop of roughly 14% was expected, that’s now up to a whopping 16.7% fall year-over-year. It’s a drop of around 200 million smartphones. The second half of the year, which we’re well into, will see the hardest hit.
Of course, the number of smartphones shipped has little to no impact on the end user, besides they might stick on their current device a bit longer.
What does have impact is pricing, with higher prices for smartphones apparently set to stick around “permanently.” The prices of memory are expected to continue going up through at least 2028 and, even after that, IDC forecasts that average selling prices will only go down by around 1-2% per year starting in 2028. In other words, next year’s smartphones will probably be even more expensive than this year’s releases, and low-end devices will only become harder to find as brands focus on the higher-end models that don’t have such thin margins.
As memory prices are expected to continue increasing until at least 2028, vendors are adapting their portfolios to a permanently higher cost structure. The 173 million smartphones below $100, which shipped last year, are facing an existential crisis. Android players focused on low-end devices, which were already operating on razor-thin margins, are cutting low-end models and pushing a higher-end product mix. In Q2 2026, this segment saw an almost 60% YoY drop and is expected to fall faster in the second half…
…The premium end will remain more resilient to the price hikes as long-term interest-free financing options are more prevalent in developed markets like the US and UK. The mass market does not hold up, especially in emerging markets, which are expected to drop over 20% this year. This is why the unit decline continues to deepen while the value line keeps rising.
The report goes on to put it bluntly:
The next 18 months will separate the vendors who can operate in a structurally more expensive market from those who cannot. Apple, Samsung, and Huawei have the scale and pricing power to turn this challenge to their advantage. Smaller Android brands anchored in the entry tiers face the hardest stretch in the industry’s history, and some will not clear it. The market that emerges on the other side of the crisis, when the memory supply finally stabilizes in 2028, will be smaller in units, larger in value, and far more concentrated at the top. The cheap smartphone era is not pausing. It is over.
The only bright spot is <a href="https://myappsplus.com/heres-how-many-foldable-iphones-idc-expects-apple-to-ship/” title=”Here’s how many foldable iPhones IDC expects Apple to ship”>foldables, which are forecasted to grow by 12.6% in 2026 (22.9 million units) and continue accelerating in 2027 to around 27 million units. That’s largely thanks to Apple joining the ranks, though, with its upcoming foldable that’s expected to be announced in just a couple of weeks.
If you thought the Pixel price hikes were bad, it sounds like that’s merely the beginning.
More on Android:
- Google Play mandating reduced memory usage & seamless device migration in 2027
- Galaxy S26 Ultra is the world’s most popular Android phone, and that’s a first
- Pixel 11 post-launch deals: Amazon now lets you stack trade-in bonus with $100+ gift cards
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