- AI adoption rates among major developed economies range from 15%–20%, with France, the US, the Netherlands, and the UK at the top end of the range, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
- Employment in industries that are highly exposed to AI automation—including information and communication services, as well as call centers, software publishing, and advertising—has slowed in recent years.
- The effects from AI on economy-wide hiring appear limited: A 10% occupational exposure to AI is associated with a drag of just 0.1 percentage point on annual headcount growth in France, Canada, and the US.
- Junior workers may face stronger headwinds to hiring due to AI adoption.
As companies integrate artificial intelligence (AI) tools into their operations, the effects on hiring are starting to show up in the economic data for some industries and workers around the world
The timing and extent of AI’s impact on job markets depend on the rate of adoption among companies. However, there are inconsistencies in surveys about AI adoption, leading to results that often vary widely. To overcome this, our economists compiled 11 different surveys that measure AI adoption across countries and applied a statistical algorithm to extract rankings, write Goldman Sachs Research economist Sarah Dong and Joseph Briggs, who leads the Global Economics team, in a report.
Which countries are adopting AI the fastest?
After rescaling around the OECD’s adoption survey—the most globally comprehensive measure in our economists’ compiled data—Goldman Sachs Research finds that major developed markets are ahead of other countries in deploying AI, with adoption rates between 15%–20%.
Among developed markets, France, the US, the Netherlands, and the UK score at the top end of this range of AI adoption. In major emerging markets, adoption rates are in the range of 10%–15%
Our economists also find that industries with greater exposure to AI automation have been associated with slower growth in job openings since the second half of 2022. The relationship between exposure to AI and slower growth in job openings was more pronounced in Germany, Australia, and the US.
“This cross-industry result confirms our prior finding that the onset of generative AI tools may have led companies in highly exposed industries to re-evaluate their hiring plans,” Dong and Briggs write.
Which industries are most impacted by AI adoption?
There is evidence that employment in information and communication services, two of the industries that are the most exposed to AI, has slowed because of AI Employment in these sectors has slowed across nearly all major developed markets since 2022. In the US, employment in those industries has fallen below its long-run trend, while it remains near or above the long-run trend in other developed countries
“These patterns suggest tech sector (broadly defined) hiring headwinds are global in nature, although outright negative impacts are most compelling in the US,” Dong and Briggs write.
Beyond information and communication services, an assessment of other industries with high exposure to AI reveals a similar, albeit more muted, pattern of AI-related employment headwinds relative to the US.
Employment in call centers, software publishing, management consulting, and advertising services has fallen sharply below trend across the developed world. Call center employment, for instance, now stands 39% below trend in the US, 33% below trend in Canada, and 27% below trend in Germany.
“These patterns confirm that, like in the US, AI-employment headwinds are visible in industries where labor-automating tools are already available,” Dong and Briggs write.
How big of an impact is AI having on jobs around the world?
Goldman Sachs Research performed another analysis, which included AI-exposure scores in a cross-country panel for more than 800 occupations, to more rigorously test the impact of AI on employment. Our economists find that a 10% occupational exposure to AI is only associated with a 0.1 percentage point drag to annual headcount growth in France, Canada, and the US.
The analysis suggests that “economy-wide hiring headwinds remain limited,” Dong and Briggs write.
Has AI had a bigger impact on jobs for younger workers?
While AI’s overall impact on job markets appears limited, recent anecdotes and US labor market data suggest that AI displacement could be stronger among entry-level workers. Goldman Sachs Research’s analysis of occupational growth based on entry- and non-entry-level groups signals that junior workers may face greater headwinds to hiring due to AI adoption.
“AI-related hiring headwinds are clearly visible in official and unofficial employment data, but impacts are limited to a narrow set of industries and workers,” Dong and Briggs write.
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