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Munster said iPhone 18 Pro lead times across eight countries initially came in significantly ahead of last year’s iPhone 17 Pro, suggesting strong early demand for Apple’s latest premium model.
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However, he noted that the lead times have since fallen considerably further, which are 31% shorter now.
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Munster acknowledged that the decline is concerning, but said some deterioration was expected because Apple’s new iPhone Duo could pull consumers away from the Pro lineup.
Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) iPhone 18 Pro demand may be losing some momentum after a strong start, but Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster believes the latest data needs to be viewed in the broader context of Apple’s new iPhone lineup.
Munster pointed to a key distinction between the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max as an early indicator of how consumers are responding to Apple’s split product cycle.
Apple shares ended with a loss of over 1% in Friday’s regular trade and edged lower by another 0.2% in the afterhours session.
iPhone 18 Pro Lead Times Are Falling
On launch day, iPhone 18 Pro lead times were 15% longer than those for the iPhone 17 Pro a year earlier, he noted. They remained 15% higher after one week before falling to 5% below last year’s levels at the two-week mark.
Munster said that the lead times have since fallen considerably further, which are 31% shorter now.
He acknowledged that the decline is concerning, but said some deterioration was expected because Apple’s new iPhone Duo could pull consumers away from the Pro lineup.
“Going into the cycle, I predicted we would see lead times 20% lower than last year given the carrot of the new Duo would pull former Pro buyers up to the Duo,” he said.
iPhone 18 Pro Max Holds Up Despite The Duo
While the iPhone 18 Pro has seen lead times fall sharply, the Pro Max has held up much better, Munster observed.
On launch day, iPhone 18 Pro Max lead times were 18% longer than the iPhone 17 Pro Max a year earlier. They remained 8% higher after one week and 6% higher after two weeks, he said. Today, they are still roughly in line with last year’s levels who termed this as a “win” for Apple, while noting that he expected the Duo to pull a meaningful portion of last year’s Pro Max buyers away from the premium lineup
