Apple (AAPL) stock is trading at a record high, and the iPhone maker’s market cap recently passed $5 trillion for the first time amid bullish expectations around demand for the new iPhone 18.
But the optimism may be too much too quick
Lee said in a note on Monday that iPhone 18 demand has slowed and that the new foldable iPhone Duo is only meeting expectations.
“Our view on weak iPhone 18 sales has been vindicated when media reports (Nikkei/Reuters) indicated AAPL has cut its orders on iPhone 18P/PM by 10%-15%. Our industry checks also suggest order cuts, but less concrete,” Lee said. “For example, we received indications that AAPL has cut orders of 3nm/2nm chips (iPhone 18P/PM uses only 2nm chips) by 10%-15%, and it has cut orders on certain iPhone components.”
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Here are the two parts of Lee’s research that stood out:
iPhone 18 demand stalled: “Our tracking continues to indicate weak demand for 18P/PM. 18P’s resale prices started going into discount for all variants on Sept. 29. A year ago, 17P’s resale prices on Sep 29 ranged from 1% to 6% premium over the official selling prices. For 18PM, its resale prices went to discounts on Oct 10 almost for all variants except two (Burgundy 512GB/1TB). A year ago, 17PM’s resale prices were above official selling prices for ALL variants and the premium ranges from 1% to 21%. Moreover, lead time has rapidly declined. In fact, lead time in China for 18P/PM has disappeared since Oct. 12/16. A year ago (Oct. 16), the lead time of 17P/PM was 6/25 days. The lead time in Japan is also significantly shorter year over year (for both 18P/PM). For 18PM, the US and Germany both showed year over year expansion of lead time as of Oct. 17. Our view on weak iPhone 18 sales has been vindicated when media reports (Nikkei/Reuters) indicated AAPL has cut its orders on iPhone 18P/PM by 10%-15%. Our industry checks also suggest order cuts, but less concrete. For example, we received indications that AAPL has cut orders of 3nm/2nm chips (iPhone 18P/PM uses only 2nm chips) by 10%-15%, and it has cut orders on certain iPhone components.”
Ho-hum start for the iPhone Duo: “As we expected, Duo’s launch for pre-order on Oct. 16 at 8am EST created rapidly expanding lead time to beyond 90 days. We attribute that to low production yield (est. max output 2m per month) and strong demand, but part of the strong demand includes speculators’ demand to buy the phone early to re-sell for profits. However, the lead time has NOT further extended. In fact it has been falling slightly since then, across all 5 major markets that we track. The lead time and our est. production rate suggest max 6m to 7m of shipment in 2026, which is in line with market expectation.”
