Tropics Update: Atlantic System Bears Watching as Pacific Development Becomes Likely – WeatherNation
Tropics Update: Atlantic System Bears Watching as Pacific Development Becomes Likely
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4 Nov 2026 2:00 AM
November is underway, but hurricane season isn’t over just yet. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two areas of interest across the Atlantic and Pacific, including a disturbance that could become a tropical depression later this week. While there are currently no active tropical cyclones in either basin, forecasters are keeping an eye on potential development over the next several days.
Atlantic: Possible Subtropical Development Northeast of the Bahamas
An area of low pressure is expected to form along a weakening frontal boundary a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas in the coming days. According to the NHC, the system could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics late this week as it drifts over the western Atlantic. However, the window for development appears limited. By the weekend, the system is expected to move eastward or northeastward into an environment less favorable for organization.
The NHC currently gives this system a 40% chance of development over the next seven days, with formation chances at 20% during the next 48 hours.
At this time, no tropical cyclone has formed, and the system remains an area to monitor rather than an organized storm.
Pacific: Tropical Depression Likely Later This Week
The Pacific has a more promising setup for tropical development. A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual strengthening and organization as the disturbance tracks westward to west-northwestward at approximately 10 to 15 mph. The NHC says a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portions of this week over the Central Pacific. There is another area that has formed with a lowchance of tropical development in the next week.
While not looking at a land-falling storm, the close proximity of its development could lead to tropical moisture ending up across the Hawaiian Islands. Regardless of that, there is still quite some time in between. Many details about this forecast can change.
Hurricane Season Isn’t Over Yet
Although tropical activity typically decreases as fall progresses, the Atlantic hurricane season officially continues through November 30. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season also runs through November 30. For now, neither disturbance has developed into a tropical cyclone, but the Pacific system has the greater potential for organization this week.
WeatherNation will continue monitoring both areas of interest and provide updates as new information becomes available from the National Hurricane Center.
